Future scenarios for retail-based food service between lifestyle and AI

Paulina Ullrich from the EHI on trends, opportunities and technologies in the food-service sector

09.12.2025

A quick lunch on the go for the office, or a fine dining experience after an evening of shopping – retail-based food service spans a broad range of culinary possibilities. But where is it heading, and what factors will shape its future?

To better understand this, the EHI launched a scenario project to outline potential futures for the sector. We spoke with Paulina Ullrich, co-author of the study study The future of retail-based food service: a map of conceivable food-service worlds 2035+ and project lead in the EHI’s food-service research division, about how operators can position themselves between convenience, technology-driven efficiency and new worlds of experience.

Paulina Ullrich studied media management and has been with the EHI Retail Institute since 2022. As project lead in the food-service research division, she is responsible for the annual trend tours, the Food-Service Forum and additional projects. She also co-authors all studies within the division.

Paulina, which trends from the retail sector are currently shaping retail-based food service – and which trends are coming from the restaurant industry?

Paulina Ullrich: The interplay between retail and gastronomy is a fascinating one. In both sectors you can see similar as well as differing trends and conditions.

In retail, first, space pressure is a major issue, which means small, flexible concepts are often needed. Second, there is high demand for convenience products that meet consumers’ need for something quick. Third, the time of day when people visit a store determines which food-service concept they are looking for. And fourth, sustainable concepts remain important, such as regional dishes or environmentally friendly packaging.

Digitization – in both gastronomy and retail – is not just a trend but a basic requirement. This includes self-order terminals, which we now see not only in system catering but increasingly in smaller restaurants as well. Another important trend is AI-supported forecasting, for example in procurement.

In gastronomy, I see the overall experience as decisive. In our scenario study, too, much revolves around social interaction, lifestyle and experience, with social media playing a key role. I know this from my own behaviour: when I look for food-service concepts, Instagram is my first stop – it’s where you can track trends most easily.

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Practical convenience food or indulgent lifestyle experiences? Where do you see the greatest potential for retail-based food service? Can retail succeed in both areas?

Ullrich: I think retail can succeed in both. Retailers are well positioned to offer convenience products for a quick lunch break, while also creating evening appeal with events, experiential dining and premium concepts – as Edeka Zurheide in Düsseldorf does, for example. We also see this reflected in our regular retailer surveys: in grocery retail, the classic lunch menu still dominates, but other retailers – for instance in the fashion segment – are tapping into different times of day.

Scenario study “The future of retail-based food service: a map of conceivable food-service worlds 2035+”

The aim of the EHI Retail Institute’s scenario project was to develop nine possible future scenarios for retail-based food service in order to make strategic decisions more robust and adaptable. Key factors considered included consumer behaviour, supply chains, urban development and energy prices.

The study sought to answer questions such as: How will retail-based food service evolve? What design options exist? Which scenarios must industry stakeholders be prepared for?

Methodology and process: In collaboration with ScMI, three workshops were held in which an interdisciplinary team from research, retail, gastronomy and industry developed the scenarios.

Your study examines potential future scenarios. What will retail-based food service look like in 10 to 15 years?

Ullrich: We identified three scenarios we consider likely. All three (scenarios five, six and seven) feature a high degree of innovation and technological adoption while simultaneously satisfying the need for lifestyle, atmosphere and in-store experience. Key success factors may also include outstanding value for money and strong to-go and delivery offerings.

Which specific technologies will play a major role in retail-based food service in the near future?

Ullrich: REWE recently put the Circus SE robot into operation – it prepares food autonomously in-store. I believe such technologies will become established over the next few years, alongside digital payment and ordering systems, as well as artificial intelligence used for sales forecasting or staff scheduling.

Will technology in retail-based food service be primarily about efficiency?

Ullrich: Technology and digitization will certainly contribute to efficiency and quality assurance. Food-service operators won’t be able to avoid this development. But it’s not just about optimizing processes – guests must also be offered an experience.

I’ve asked myself whether digitization and automation in gastronomy conflict with experience and lifestyle. My answer is very clear: no. I believe they actually create space for experience and personalized interaction by ensuring that processes run smoothly in the background.

A good example is Le Petit Chef: an animation of tiny chef characters preparing your dish is projected onto your table before the real plate arrives. It’s a compelling blend of digital technology and personal interaction. I think that’s where the future lies.

Retail-based food service offers excellent value for money. The sector has been growing for years despite inflation, while the broader out-of-home market is up to 82% more expensive.

A young woman with long, curly, blonde hair smiles at the camera in front of a neutral background; copyright: EHI

Retailers should analyze their location and target group carefully: in city centers, convenience formats make sense; in young, trendy districts, social media is indispensable.

Do digitization and automation conflict with experience and lifestyle? No. Efficient processes free up space for experience and personalized interaction.

Our customer personas in the most likely future scenarios are health-conscious, highly convenience-oriented and very digitally savvy. We expect digital offerings to become decisive.

I see real opportunities for small and medium-sized retail companies: they can often act more independently and flexibly than large corporations when experimenting with creative food-service concepts.

Eine junge Frau mit langen, lockigen, blonden Haaren blickt lächelnd in die Kamera vor einem neutralen Hintergrund; copyright: EHI

Should retail-based food-service operators invest first in internal processes or in visible customer experiences?

Ullrich: Because robotics, automation and AI are still in their early stages – both for retailers and guests – I think it’s crucial to first establish reliable back-end processes. Only once that foundation is in place should technology gradually be brought closer to guests to create special customer experiences.

Do you have a suggestion for which food-service concept will work best for retailers in the future?

Ullrich: I’d love to give a precise answer, but I can’t. It’s essential that retailers begin with a strong location analysis. They should ask: What kind of local environment am I operating in? Which target group do I want to reach, and does my concept fit them?

In a high-footfall city-center location, a fast convenience concept makes the most sense. If the location is trendy and the audience young, social media presence is a must. A luxury fashion retailer would lean toward lifestyle, high quality and fine dining.

Possible scenarios for retail-based food service

“Successfully preserving tradition”

Retail-based food service on traditional paths

Retail-based food service is shaped by a stagnant economy, heavy regulation and analogue consumer behaviour.

This scenario describes a largely stable but low-innovation trajectory in which traditional patterns dominate.

The store concept focuses on simple, inexpensive dishes served in functional environments with little atmosphere and minimal digitalisation.

The future persona represents a down-to-earth, routine-driven lifestyle with clear preferences for classic, quick and filling dishes. This persona seeks reliability, personal interaction and good value for money and shows little openness to novelty.

“Lost in transition”

Traditional retail-based food service loses relevance

In this scenario, retail-based food service is defined by a stagnant, heavily regulated economy and analogue, emotionally influenced consumer behaviour. At the same time, consumers exhibit high price sensitivity, low quality expectations and a strong need for social experiences.

The scenario depicts a retail-based food-service sector steadily losing relevance because it cannot keep pace emotionally with more experience-driven competitors.

Store concepts remain focused on simple, low-cost dishes, even though atmosphere and experience would theoretically be central. The lack of digitalisation prevents a convincing delivery on these expectations, leaving stores functional yet interchangeable, and limiting growth in delivery services.

The future persona embodies a tradition-oriented, security-seeking consumer who values analogue routines, familiar products and social encounters.

“New focus – lifestyle to go”

Retail-based food service amid changing urban lifestyles

In this scenario, consumption is emotional, pleasure-oriented and increasingly differentiated, even though society as a whole remains only lightly digitalised.

The scenario describes a sector that successfully repositions itself in everyday life and benefits from close integration with brick-and-mortar retail. Brand-driven value creation, professional service and personal interaction enhance its relevance.

Store concepts offer a wide spectrum of both premium and affordable dishes, making atmosphere and experience central to success. While service processes are barely automated, automation in the kitchen gains importance, particularly for to-go moments.

The future persona represents the urban, mobile self-actualiser – flexible, digitally organised and constantly on the move. This persona prefers high-quality to-go options that suit an efficiency-driven lifestyle.

“A strong presence on site”

Retail-based food service as an equal player in on-site gastronomy

This scenario is marked by an expanding economy and the strong influence of digital media. At the same time, the technological environment remains comparatively weak, while consumers pursue pleasure, quality and socially embedded dining.

The scenario describes a retail-based food-service sector that successfully positions itself as an equal player alongside traditional on-site gastronomy, attracting customers across food channels. It grows by emphasising pleasure within the physical retail environment.

Store concepts prioritise variety across premium and affordable dishes and create high dwell time through strong atmosphere and experiences. Despite low digitalisation in service and moderate automation, culinary processes continue to evolve, while ordering and delivery play a minor role.

The future persona stands for a quality- and responsibility-oriented urban consumer who values good products and enjoys deliberate out-of-home dining moments that fit a comfort-oriented lifestyle.

“Innovation meets enjoyment for all”

Innovation along the value chain

Retail-based food service in this scenario is driven by a fully digitalised, highly networked consumer world where innovation occurs along the entire value chain. Diverse dietary styles, trend-driven consumption and strong demand for high-quality, flexible options shape the market.

The sector grows in both to-go and on-site dining and establishes itself as an innovative, integral component of retail. Automated services, digital touchpoints and strong brands help it reach new target groups and become firmly embedded in daily routines.

Store concepts are digitally saturated and experience-oriented, combining premium and budget-friendly dishes in efficient, atmospheric environments. Service is largely automated, while cooking remains a craft.

The future persona represents a young, trend-sensitive and impulsive audience that lives digitally, consumes spontaneously and prioritises convenience above all. This persona seeks affordable quality and spontaneous to-go experiences, responding strongly to social-media trends and experience-driven offerings.

“Tailored enjoyment”

Retail-based food service innovates preparation

Retail-based food service is shaped by a highly digitalised, globally networked economy in which retailers use technology to offer highly personalised moments of enjoyment. Consumers are strongly quality-oriented with low price sensitivity and expect individual, flexible, socially embedded dining situations.

Retail and gastronomy merge into a holistic experiential space, positioning themselves as competitors to traditional restaurants. With service orientation, digital interaction and immersive brand worlds, retail-based food service grows both in on-site consumption and in to-go and delivery.

Store concepts focus on high-quality dishes, a strongly digitalised environment and highly automated service processes that still enable individualised experiences. Ordering and delivery options compete directly with traditional delivery platforms.

The future persona stands for a performance-driven, urban and style-conscious consumer who uses digital tools to structure a tightly scheduled life around efficiency and enjoyment. This persona prefers personalised, high-quality, health-oriented meals and values sustainability and individuality.

“Growth of the new middle ground”

Retail-based food service as the price–performance winner

This scenario is shaped by a digitalised, globally networked economy in which consumers embrace spontaneous, location-independent and technology-supported eating patterns. Dietary variety increases, while a balanced price–performance ratio becomes the key decision factor.

Retail-based food service positions itself as the new middle of the market and appeals to a broad target group with affordable quality. It grows in both on-site and to-go segments, benefitting from the classical gastronomy sector’s pressure from rising prices.

Store concepts combine mid-range pricing and quality with digitalised processes, strong atmosphere and clear experience orientation. Service is partially automated, and stores compete directly with traditional restaurant formats and delivery services.

The future persona represents an urban, socially oriented and quality-conscious consumer who values flexible eating times, digital convenience and atmospherically appealing retail-based food service. This persona wants variety, freshness and an experience factor – whether for a quick to-go moment or a social lunch or dinner.

“The future eats functional”

Retail-based food service on a functional course between enjoyment and health

In this scenario, retail-based food service is shaped by a highly digitalised, globalised and functionally oriented consumer world in which innovative technologies and automated processes define everyday life. Consumers rely on individualised, technologically optimised nutrition, while social aspects recede into the background.

Retail-based food service positions itself at a higher price point. It grows steadily in both to-go and on-site dining and appeals through efficiency, quality and personalised nutrition solutions.

Store concepts are digital, highly automated and focused on high-quality functional dishes, while atmosphere and experience play only a minor role. With automated service and kitchen processes, retail-based food service increasingly competes with delivery providers.

The future persona represents a young, health- and performance-oriented audience that plans its nutrition intentionally, uses digital tools strategically and embraces self-optimisation as a lifestyle. This persona prefers functional, protein-rich and calorie-conscious dishes and expects offerings that combine efficiency, quality and sustainability.

“Smart, speedy, sated”

Retail-based food service in an automated to-go world

This scenario is defined by a highly digitalised, heavily automated and price-oriented consumer world in which functional nutrition is paramount. Variety remains limited due to fragile value chains, while online channels dominate.

Retail-based food service shifts almost entirely into the to-go segment and is characterised primarily by efficiency, low prices and basic functionality. Emotional connection, experiential value and brand relevance play virtually no role.

Store concepts rely on a pared-back atmosphere, digital ordering processes and maximal automation. Small footprints and efficient workflows set the tone, while ordering and delivery functions take centre stage.

The future persona represents a young, pragmatic and highly scheduled consumer who prefers functional, budget-friendly food options. This persona uses digital solutions purposefully and appreciates quick to-go meals that fit a structured daily routine.

How did you experience the development process of your study?

Ullrich: What impressed me most was seeing how far ahead some retailers and restaurateurs are already thinking. We intentionally kept the process open-ended. The resulting scenarios ranged from very positive trajectories to more ambivalent ones, and even to a future in which gastronomy might take on a completely different form – for example, if our diets became purely functional through pills and shakes.

Did the participants from retail and gastronomy take away any learnings from the process?

Ullrich: I think the workshops made everyone realize once again that they need to engage with the future – with developments over the next ten years – and start developing strategies now. I actually see an opportunity here for small and medium-sized retail businesses to try out creative concepts: companies that operate more independently and flexibly than huge corporations, which are bound by a host of regulations and quality-management requirements, might even have an advantage.

Interview: Julia Pott | EuroShop.mag

Julia Pott has been working as an editor in the retail sector for eight years – initially at the retail magazine iXtenso, at times also as editor-in-chief. Today, she is responsible for the concept, editorial plan, content and design of the online magazine EuroShop.mag on behalf of the EuroShop and EuroCIS trade fairs. Her contributions combine editorial depth with a feel for trends and topics that drive the retail sector.

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